



3 Card Poker

Nevada casinos average about 60% of their hold from
slot machines, and in some casinos up to two-thirds of those machines
are now video poker. It's not uncommon for a large casino to have more
than one thousand video poker machines.
Video poker is unique in being one of very few games that were developed
for casino use before being played privately. As in live draw poker, you
are initially dealt five cards from a randomly shuffled deck. Most machines
beep and indicate if you have a made paying hand, but you do not have
to hold that hand. You select which cards to hold, then press the Draw
button, and new cards are dealt off the top of the deck to replace the
discards. If the final hand is in the payoff schedule, the machine makes
the payoff, either by counting up credits or dropping coins; otherwise,
your bet is lost.
The main attraction of video poker to the neophyte is that the player's
wits are pitted against the machine in fast action with a chance at a
big jackpot. To the skilled player, however, the attraction is that some
games offer an opportunity for a long term profit. Just as in a live poker
game, there is a considerable amount of risk and luck involved in the
short term, but it is a player's skill that will make the difference between
a winner and a loser in the long run.
You may already know that some video poker games offer over 100% potential
long term payback, but you will achieve a game's rated payback only if
you always hold the cards that will give the highest expected value (the
average payback for all possible outcomes) for each hand you are dealt.
That is why I call video poker "The Intelligent Player's Slot Machine."
Video poker vs. slot machines
A video poker machine resembles the traditional slot machine in several
ways, being housed in a similar metal cabinet with similar locks; most
have a coin slot to accept your bet and a coin hopper that pays out your
winnings; and it makes various sounds to attract players. Many have a
slot club card reader and/or a bill acceptor.
The most obvious difference is that on a reel slot the player wins when
the symbols stop with a particular combination, such as three bars, while
a video poker player wins when the final five cards form a recognizable
poker hand, such as a straight. The most important difference, however,
is that the video poker player has an opportunity to select which cards
to hold and then draw in an attempt to improve the hand. A certain degree
of skill is required in this selection process to achieve the game's rated
payback.
In either case, all of the winning combinations with their respective
payoffs are shown on the front of the machine or on the screen, and the
machine automatically pays out the indicated number of coins or counts
up that number of credits when one of those combinations occurs.
What most players don't know (or at least won't consciously admit to themselves)
is that, unlike older machines which were randomized mechanically and
the result undetermined until the reels actually stopped, the reels on
all modern machines are spun by independent motors to display an outcome
that has already been determined by a random number generator.
Many casinos advertise 97% or better payback on reel slots, but this often
applies only to certain $1 machines. Care to guess what the payback is
on the others? Without knowing the machine's internal logic it's impossible
to calculate, but if 97% payback is considered generous then what do the
others pay? Nevada gaming regulations specify only that a machine must
pay back at least 75% of all money wagered (see Appendix 4). In New Jersey
the minimum is 83%. Many other jurisdictions do not specify a minimum
payback. Worse, many new gambling areas specify a maximum payback under
100%. They typically say that it's to prevent skimming (e.g., by setting
a machine to pay well over 100% for a crony), but more likely to assure
a flow of tax dollars. Just who is it that our government is protecting?
Compare the very best reel machine's maximum of perhaps 99% payback to
a minimum of 99% payback with optimum strategy any of the recommended
video poker games. But that's just the beginning. On many poker machines
you really can achieve over 100% long term payback.
But don't get the idea that careful selection of games and accurate play
are only for long term players. Sure, it's possible to be a winner on
a low paying game. A small percentage of players win big every day at
craps, roulette and slot machines. The casinos publicize this to attract
more losers. While it's true that luck predominates in any short playing
session, it's skill that makes the difference between a winner and a loser
in the long run. That same skill also increases your chances of being
a winner in each playing session, no matter how much or how little you
play.
Video poker vs. live table poker
As in live table poker, the cards are dealt from a standard 52 card deck
(53 in Joker Wild games) that is well shuffled before each hand. After
being dealt your initial five cards, you must decide which cards to hold
and which to discard in an attempt to effect a winning poker hand (or
to improve an existing winner) just as you would do in a live draw poker
game. But there the similarity ends.
So just how is video poker different? Consider the following:
o In video poker the house is banking the game, yet the machine is not
trying to beat your hand. It's more a game of solitaire. Attempting to
bluff or to "read" your opponent is pointless since there are
no opponents.
o You can't get a "bad beat" in video poker. Your straight can't
lose to that flush on another player's machine. It will always win according
to the payoff schedule.
o Some plays that may sometimes be correct in table poker become costly
mistakes in video poker. One of the most common errors is holding a "kicker"
or other worthless cards.
o Conversely, many plays that are correct in video poker would be wrong
in live table poker. In some cases, for example, it's correct to draw
to an inside straight.
It is primarily these characteristics that lure most players into making
bad plays, thus making video poker a big winner for the casino, even on
games that offer over 100% potential payback. In this section, however,
you will learn just how easy it is to keep the house edge to a minimum,
and in some cases to even enjoy the prospects of being a long-term winner.
Full pay vs. short pay machines
Only a small percentage of the wide variety of games can be beat in the
long run, so you must first learn how to recognize those games. I frequently
see someone playing a short-pay machine when the one next to it is the
same basic type but full-pay, yet it sits idle. All that is necessary
is to know the full pay schedules for the games you like, and play only
those games. We will be discussing various ways that the payoff schedules
are shorted in the specific game sections which follow.
Although games offering over 100% payback may be rare outside southern
Nevada, an accurate playing strategy is important wherever you play. Even
if you choose to play where high paying games are not available, following
an optimum strategy will minimize your losses and give you the best chance
of having a winning session. Don't be taken in by some books' claims of
teaching you how to beat the slots or any other negative expectation game.
Each game has an inherent maximum payback that can be closely approached
but never exceeded.
What is Expected Value?
To put it in as simple terms as possible, the expected value (commonly
abbreviated EV) of any chance event is the weighted average of all possible
outcomes. Let's see how to determine the EV of a video poker play.
There are thirty-two possible ways to play any dealt five-card hand. You
can hold all five cards (that's one way), hold four cards and draw one
(obviously there are five possible one-card discards), hold two cards
and draw three (there are ten possible combinations for a two-card discard),
hold three cards and draw two (again ten possibilities), hold one card
and draw four (there are five ways to hold just one card), or discard
all five cards. In any case, we have seen five of the 52 cards in the
deck, so the draw must come from the remaining 47 unseen cards.
For each of these thirty-two ways of playing a hand there are many possible
outcomes. Suppose, for example, that the card ranks in a dealt hand are
J-9-10-J-Q. Of course, they could be in any order. Here you have a pair
of jacks, which in some games is a made payoff, but that may not be the
best way to play the hand. Is it better to hold 9-10-J-Q and draw for
a straight?If the 9-10-J are all the same suit, is it better to drop the
pair and go for the straight flush draw? And if the J-Q are suited, should
we draw for a royal flush? I can't answer those questions yet, because
the best play is often different for different games.
Note that if we draw for the straight it's also possible to catch a J
or Q for a high pair, and if we go for the straight flush we could also
end up with a high pair, three of a kind, a straight or a flush. And drawing
three cards to the J-Q has many more possibilities. The probability of
every possible outcome must be multiplied by its respective payoff, and
the sum of all these possible results is the EV of the play.
There are 28 other ways to play this hand, but for most games these four
give the highest expected values. The actual EV's, however, depend upon
the particular game's payoff schedule, so the best way of playing the
hand varies between games. To create a playing strategy, we have to examine
many such card combinations and determine the highest EV plays. This allows
us to build a hand rank table which can be used as a playing strategy.
Now let's look at a few popular games.
By Dan Paymar
Cycle: The statistically predicted average number of hands per royal flush (or other top jackpot). In other words, a "cycle" is simply the reciprocal of the probability of a royal on the next hand. Remember that the games are random, however, so don't expect to get exactly one royal flush per "cycle." The Poisson Distribution tells us that there is only a 63.2% probability of at least one royal in one cycle, but this balanced by the chances of two or more royals in one cycle.
Expected Return: The average amount of money payed back on a particular play for a particular bet. The Expected Return (ER) is the Expected Value of a play multiplied by the amount bet. Most commercially available video poker analysis programs, when analyzing a hand, give the ER of each possible play. The program may call those numbers Expected Values, but any qualified statistician will confirm that as a misnomer (see next definition).
Expected Value: The statistically projected average per-unit-bet payback of a particular play. Another way of looking at the EV is the average of all possible outcomes for a particular play or game. Most commercially available video poker analysis programs give the Expected Return (ER) of each possible play when a hand is analyzed. Assuming a five coin bet, dividing the ER by five will give the EV. A better technique, however, is to change the bet to one coin and adjust all one-coin payoffs to per-coin values so that the program will give EV directly. For more details, see my article "What is Expected Value?"
Full Pay: Usually the best payoff schedule offered for a particular game. For example, 9/6 Jacks-or-Better or 10/7 Double Bonus Poker. (Such numbers are the per-coin payoffs that are most commonly shorted on the particular game.) There are exceptions, however, such as full pay games with 4700 coin royal at several casinos, the 10/6 and 9/7 Jacks-or-Better games at the Stratosphere, and any game with a full pay schedule plus a progressive jackpot. Most strategies are initially developed for the full pay version, then often adapted for certain variations.
Optimum Play: Employing a strategy that may not be quite perfect play but instead is designed to yield the highest per hour win rate with real human play. For details, see my article, "What is Optimum Play?"
Payback: The long term expected return of a game as it is being played. Usually expressed as a percent, but sometimes expressed as the Expected Value (EV) of the game. You can expect to make money on a game only if its long term payback, including any slot club cash rebate, is over 100% (EV greater than one). For your personal evaluation of a situation, you should include the value of any additional comps or promotions.
Payoff: The number of coins or credits paid for a particular winning hand. Often expresses on a "per-coin" basis. For example, a Full House in standard full pay Jacks-or-Better with five coins bet pays 45 coins, but this is usually expressed as 9-for-1. This way, it is the same for a 4-coin, 10-coin or 100-coin machine. Note the use of "for" rather than "to" for the payoff odds; this is because the bet has already disappeared into the guts of the machine, and it is not returned. A Full House pays out a total of only nine coins for each coin bet. It would be "9-to-1" only if it also returned your bet (for a total of 10 coins paid out).
Payoff Schedule: Each slot or video poker machine's complete payoff schedule is posted on the glass front or on the screen. This is usually in the form of a table that shows the number of coins paid for each possible final hand for each possible number of coins bet. The big advantage that video poker has over reel slots, however, is that Nevada and Louisiana regulations require every unseen card to have equal probability of appearing at any time, just as if the cards were being dealt from a well-shuffled deck of real cards, thus making it possible to determine the game's maximum payback and an accurate strategy to achieve that payback.
Payout: The actual dropping of coins by a machine. Some old machines still pay out the coins immediately for every payoff, but most now accumulate credits, and the actual payout occurs only when one presses the Cash Out button. In the case of a coinless machine, it is the printing of a cash voucher. In the case of a jackpot, it is usually a hand pay.
Penalty Card: A useless card in a dealt hand which must be discarded, but whose absence from the remaining deck reduces the chances of making some of the secondary payoffs. This reduces the EV of the play even though it does not affect the probability of the primary target hand. For details, see my article, "What is a Penalty Card?"
Perfect Play: Making every play for the absolute highest Expected Value. Perfect play is easy on a trivial game such as Double Down Stud or Pick'em Poker, and not too difficult on Jacks-or-Better, but it is nearly impossible for a human to achieve on the more complex games such as Double Bonus Poker and All American Poker. That is why I have developed Optimum Play. For details, see my article, "What is a Optimum Play?"
Push: No exchange of money. In a blackjack game, when the player and dealer have the same hand, the dealer leaves the player's money in the betting square and taps the table to designate a push. In video poker, however, your bet has already disappeared into the machine's hopper, and a payoff equal to your bet is proclaimed by the machine to be a win, when actually the one-for-one payoff is only a push. Video poker was the first casino game to achieve this trick of making a push look like a win.
Rated Payback: The long term expected return of a game. Many analysts quote the value given by a game analysis program, but that assumes perfect play. For example, they rate Double Bonus Poker at 100.17%, or even round that up to 100.2%. What happens when you ASSUME something? It makes an ... well, you know. I always round down, and I make an allowance for real human play depending on the complexity of the game. My payback ratings are achievable with real human play.
Secondary Payoff: In many cases we are drawing with the hopes of making a particular big payoff, but much of the EV of the play comes from smaller payoffs when we miss the big one. For example, you might draw two cards to a Royal Flush but end up with a high pair, two pair, three-of-a-kind, a straight or a flush, all of which we would call secondary payoffs.
Zilch: Nothing. A dealt hand with no cards worth holding (i.e., you should redraw all five cards) or a final hand with no payoff.
By Dan Paymar, Special Thanks.
The poker dictionary will help you understand the complex termes in poker.
Action:By Andrew Glazer
Disclaimer: We have know way of knowing if they will work for you. Some things work for others and not for us. Some work for us but not for others. You can check our Disclaimer.

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